Is Beef the New Egg?

Carnivores, brace yourselves—beef prices are spiking. 

If your last grocery run gave you sticker shock, you’re not alone. Egg prices may have cooled down, but now a cookout classic is starting a similar climb in cost. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting record highs on the price of beef. The MVP of outdoor summer gathering and the upcoming soup season rang in at around $6.50 per pound last month—a 12.2% jump from the same time a year ago. And for the steak lovers? A USDA-choice sirloin costs $13.55 per pound on average. That’s an even bigger increase—15.6%—from last year.

Of course, this month’s numbers are still in the works, but things aren’t looking up (read: Prices aren’t going down). The USDA forecasts beef and veal prices could keep climbing this year and next. But what’s driving the spike?

The supply-and-demand squeeze isn’t new—the cattle market swings in price range normally. But since 2019, the industry has been stuck in shrink mode and herds are now the leanest they’ve been in decades. The USDA estimates currently only 28.7 million beef cattle on U.S. farms—the smallest headcount since the 1960s. Add in drought, pricey feed and fewer cows being bred, and it’s clear a rebound won’t come quick.

Even imports—the backup plan for America’s beefy tendencies—might not be enough to keep Raleigh’s grills sizzling. For one, tariffs could impact how much meat makes its way to local shelves. Per USDA, imported beef from Brazil fell around 100 million pounds month over month starting in May. And while they’ve been our go-to foreign supplier, a steep 76.4% tariff makes it tough for them to keep pace.

To make matters worse, the heifer’s version of avian flu, the New World screwworm, is quickly spreading to a degree of concern. An outbreak in Central America and Mexico has the livestock trade along the southern border on lockdown, with no sure end in sight.

It’s not the prettiest picture for carnivores. It’ll take some time—possibly until 2033—before the market expands again. It may take hunting out deals, phoning a few local butchers or even swapping out that burger for chicken—at least until prices cool off.

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