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Imagine placing a big bet that you won’t go somewhere—then simply… not go and collect the winnings.
That’s essentially what former U.S. Rep. George Santos did when he wagered that he wouldn’t attend the State of the Union, then stayed home to rake in thousands of dollars. He even told followers he planned to attend, potentially influencing how others wagered.
Thanks to his eyebrow-raising bet, in August, Santos became the first person ever to be banned from betting platform Kalshi—for life. Welcome to the increasingly wild world of prediction markets, where the person placing the bet may have inside information—or even the power to prophesy.
Anyone over 18 can bet on essentially anything, from reality TV and Time’s Person of the Year to major events and the midterms unfolding as you read this. And that’s where things get darker: Markets have included everything from where forest fires will ignite to other actions bettors can conceivably cause themselves, like rushing the field at a pro sporting event. It’s insider trading meets Nightcrawler—you make the odds.
“It’s not just easy to start a fire, now there’s potentially a financial incentive,” says climate scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau. As the LA wildfires raged last January, bettors gambled on how many acres fires would consume, where they would reach and when they would be contained using Polymarket, a leading gambling app.
The potential for insider intel is just as thorny. A U.S. Special Forces soldier in NC was charged with using classified information to wager on the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro—a military operation prosecutors say he helped plan and execute. His alleged long-shot bet reportedly netted him more than $400K. And another service member reportedly raked in $1M after betting on military actions in Iran and Venezuela they were possibly involved in, raising serious questions about whether inside information or actions they themselves carried out were again at play.
Some are raising eyebrows at bets on whether neighbors’ homes will burn down or if a country will be invaded, but NCers—for the most part—continue to wager. Residents bet ~$8 billion on sports alone in fiscal year 2026, and NC became the first state to tax all prediction markets earlier this year.
While states like New York, Illinois and Kentucky have sued prediction platforms over what they allege is “unlicensed gambling,” North Carolina has taken a decidedly different route: taxing the markets and the revenue they generate.
So, as Dancing With the Stars, extreme weather and wars rage on, gamblers are staking their claim—whether they can sway the outcome or not.
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