2024 Raleigh Real Estate Projections

2024 Raleigh Real Estate Projections

North Carolina continues to win accolades for our strong economy and business savvy. Named Best State for Business by CNBC in 2023 for the second year in a row, NC’s burgeoning businesses continue to attract companies to make the state home—a key contributor to our top 3 U.S. Census Bureau in population growth, following only Texas and Florida. “This incredible growth gives us great confidence in our local real estate market,” says Compass’ Renee Smith. Here, we forecast 2024.

Hot Take: Gender Gap 
Who rule the world—er, real estate market? Women. While women couldn’t even get a mortgage or a credit card without a male cosign until 1974 (sit on that fact for a second…), single females now outpace single men in NC property ownership 14% to 9% per current Census data. While women’s weekly earnings still lag, the growing gender gap for single homeownership skews female—with NC ranking No. 6 in states with the widest gender gap.

Pro tip: Falling rates is likely to fuel demand and drive up prices. Experts say now is the time for smart buyers to start shopping.

Market Outlook—According to Resident Experts

“2024 should have a fairly positive outlook. Both buyers and sellers will adjust to the reality of interest rates and that the median home price has remained relatively flat (a slight decrease from Jan ’23 compared to Jan ’24). With both sides having a more realistic view of what the market looks like now, they’ll both adjust expectations and 2024 will certainly be another year of growth in the Triangle.” —Sarah Hunter, Broker/Realtor, City to Coast Realty


“Our local real estate market has shown an unusually early surge this year. There has been a noticeable increase in home showings and a resurgence of buyers. … Additionally, the Triangle region continues to attract hundreds of new residents daily, setting the stage for a projected 4% growth in the housing market for 2024. —Shawn Britt, Broker/Owner, Realty World Triangle Living


“Sellers remain in an advantageous position with significant home appreciation over the past few years, and home equity is strong! A lot of opportunity exists on both sides of the transaction—whether buying or selling. It’s a great time for potential sellers to take advantage of their high equity position, and buyers are feeling more settled and accepting of rates! —Renee Smith, Managing Broker, Compass Raleigh Midtown; Managing Director, Compass Carolinas | Compass Real Estate


“The potential for Fed interest rate cuts later this year could further boost the market by possibly lowering mortgage rates and bolstering buyer confidence. However, key challenges remain tight supply and affordability constraints due to limited used home inventory. Balancing this demand with adequate supply will be crucial for a truly thriving housing market in the Triangle.” —James Flanagan, Vice President of Community Experience, Tri Pointe Homes Raleigh


Relocating buyers from other states amounts to ~23% of our buyer population

Trend Report

12 trends to expect in Raleigh real estate in 2024 according to local experts

⬆️ Buyer Demand
“As interest rates fall from a 2023 high and the hype of inflation settles a bit, buyers who held back in the latter part of last year are back in full force!” —Renee Smith, Managing Broker, Compass Raleigh Midtown; Managing Director, Compass Carolinas | Compass Real Estate

Continued Market Stabilization
“After a period of price appreciation and limited inventory, 2024 should see some stabilization. Mortgage rates are expected to remain somewhat elevated, but we anticipate a leveling in Q2/Q3.” —James Flanagan, Vice President of Community Experience, Tri Pointe Homes Raleigh

Making Moves
“Interest rates will probably not go back to the 2–3% days, and buyers and sellers are starting to adjust their mindsets to the current conditions. We’re seeing more buyers and sellers start to make moves instead of sitting and waiting for rates to drop.” —Sarah Hunter, Broker/Realtor, City to Coast Realty

⬆️ Housing Prices
“Low inventory levels and high demand will likely contribute to a competitive market, making it more challenging for first-time homebuyers.” —Shawn Britt, Broker/Owner, Realty World Triangle Living

⬆️ Multiple Offers
“The return of multiple offers on hot properties—aka homes that are priced right, in best locations and don’t need many updates.  We’ll see more of this as interest rates fluctuate too.” —Sarah Hunter

Affordability Focus
“With affordability continuing to be a concern, homebuilders may shift toward smaller, more efficient homes—and even possibly attached products that can cater to first-time buyers and budget-conscious consumers.” —James Flanagan

⬆️ Move-In Ready Demand
“Buyers looking for move-in ready homes where updates have already been made—or new construction—to avoid renovations.” —Sarah Hunter

⬆️ Seller $hellout
“The return of repair requests and seller paid closing costs: as the market changes and sellers need to sell, we may see more willing to give up money for repairs or closing costs to keep buyers under contract and close the sale.” —Sarah Hunter

Stress on Sustainability 
“As environmental concerns become more prominent, homebuyers are increasingly looking for eco-friendly features and energy-saving technologies—and, just as importantly, quality over quantity.” —Shawn Britt

Transplant Takeover
“NC—and specifically the Triangle—is a highly desirable destination and many buyers are flocking here for our great economy, highly educated population, incredible lifestyle, comfortable weather, and proximal beaches and mountains!” —Renee Smith

Live/Work/Play
“With consumers continuing to prioritize outdoor spaces and community experiences, developers are focusing on building homes in walkable neighborhoods with access to parks and green spaces, as well as amenities like pools, fitness centers and more. This trend could also lead to the development of mixed-use communities combining homes with retail, office space and entertainment options.” —James Flanagan

Tech Effect
“An influx of tech-related jobs will likely influence the demand for housing and commercial real estate in the area. —Shawn Britt

$78,631
Median household income for City of Raleigh

2.2 months
Active inventory—a stable market typically includes a six-month supply.

Chief Issues: Crime + Pay

Chief Issues: Crime + Pay

Raleigh Police Chief Estella Patterson discusses the challenges and achievements of her first year at the helm.

Aug. 12, 2022, marked Chief Estella D. Patterson’s one-year anniversary as Raleigh’s 30th police chief. She came here with a vision of making “Raleigh the safest city in America.” In a year marked by a waning pandemic and rapid return to “real life,” rising local gun violence and a concentrated focus on police pay, much has happened since Chief Patterson’s swearing in. In her sit-down with Raleigh Magazine, we talked about violent crime, police pay, the officer shortage—plus bringing nobility back to the police profession. 

“Everything we’re doing as a department falls into one of these three buckets, And we’ve made advancements in all three, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.” 

—Chief Estella D. Patterson

Violent Crime

“We are still striving toward Raleigh being the safest city,” says Patterson. While she acknowledges the uptick in violent crime, she clarifies that in her Q2 media rounds she publicly updated that “we’ve seen violent crime go up, but we’re seeing it go back down.” In January this year, we were up 13% in violent crime over last year. We are now still up slightly, but trending down at 4%. “Which is awesome,” she says, “and I credit that to the intentionality of really focusing on our violent crime and then also to the partnerships that we have created, like with the U.S. Attorney’s Office.” Clearly federal cases don’t resolve quickly, so “that partnership is huge,” she says, adding to that RPD’s close work with the District Attorney’s office via a frequent roundtable to review the city’s most violent crime offenders and ensuring those cases stick and get the most significant charges.

Raleigh Police Chief

Salary, Recruitment + Retention

“I think a fair compensation for where we live would be to start our officers at least at $60,000,” says Patterson. “I truly believe the capital city should be higher than anybody else.”

However, she’s grateful Raleigh City Council approved police raises, effective July 30, 2022, bumping new officers from an abysmal $42,300 to $50,301—a jump that, at first sight, may look impressive. But much is at play here. While a ~19% raise is nothing to balk at—and makes major strides in helping to fill the roughly 125 vacancies (~15% of the police force—down from 21% in April)—that salary remains outpaced by other agencies in Wake County and across North Carolina. 

While there’s still a gap, the chief is keen on highlighting opportunities RPD has to offer that aren’t afforded elsewhere—think take-home cars, serving as canine and motorcycle officers, or on SWAT or crash investigation teams. But Pattersonisn’t resting on her laurels. “We’ll keep fighting to get more,” she says. “We have to be more competitive than what we are now.”

Raleigh Police Chief

Raleigh Police Foundation

One of Patterson’s proudest accomplishments has been achieving her goal to start a police foundation in Raleigh. Modeled after Charlotte’s foundation, the Raleigh Police Department Foundation (RPDF, raleighpolicefoundation.org) is comprised of a set of stakeholders who provide financial support and advocacy. After a premiere board meeting in early July, led by board chair and “huge PD supporter” Brenda Gibson, “our foundation is full steam ahead,” says Patterson. Beyond connecting NC’s two major metropolises, the foundation provides extraordinary support for our officers by making high-dollar purchases and equipment needs RPD wouldn’t be able to make within its current budget, she explains. 


Noble Calling

As we approach 9/11, emotions and images flood to mind—including the now ubiquitous photo of first responders raising a flag from the rubble. And while we continue to say “never forget”… have we forgotten? Have we forgotten the gratitude, veneration and admiration we felt for the heroes who ran toward known peril, destruction, debris and devastation? In our sit-down with Chief Estella Patterson, we asked her what she thinks it will take to return to a time when police were trusted and respected. “We have to put the nobility back in,” she says. “I think that has been lost. We have to reinstill the ideal that any profession where you’re serving your community or country is noble.” Patterson points out the disparity in media coverage, implying it is part of the problem. “We had that big incident in April where our officers were shot at in the middle of the day, and that didn’t get a lot of media attention because they’d rather talk about us shooting somebody and killing somebody rather than us being shot at,” says Patterson candidly. “But those are the kinds of things our officers are facing on a daily basis. I just ask the public to continue to support the men and women that do this work. It’s a tough job. It’s going to get tougher every single day. We can’t fix it by ourselves,” she says. “We’re gonna need community support in order to do that.”